Ocean carriers in the eastbound trans-Pacific are increasingly confident that a rate war can be avoided through the Lunar New Year period when many factories in Asia will close for about two weeks beginning in late January. They are concerned, however, that spot rates may not rebound as they normally do in the spring because carriers are scheduled to add at least 1.6 million TEUs of new capacity to the global fleet in 2024–25.

“It’s nothing unexpected. We were already seeing signs of carriers not being able to hold the rates. Bullet discounts were already there,” said Christian Sur, executive vice president ocean freight/contract logistics at the NVO Unique Logistics International.

At present, the situation in the Red Sea remains increasingly chaotic. Recently, the Houthi armed forces have escalated their attacks and improved their accuracy, increasing the frequency of their strikes. If the situation continues to deteriorate, further exacerbating the pressure on the global shipping supply chain, the risk spillover may continue to push up freight rates.